O‘zbekistonda valyuta kursini shakllanish holati prognozlari
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16037591Keywords:
valyuta kursi, inflyatsiya, real YAIM, qayta moliyalash stavkasi, tashqi savdo balansi, oltin-valyuta zaxiralari, ekonometrik model, prognozlash, O‘zbekiston, pul-kredit siyosati, dollarlashuvAbstract
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekistonda valyuta kursining shakllanishiga ta’sir etuvchi asosiy ichki va tashqi omillar
hamda ularning o‘zaro bog‘liqligi ko‘p omilli ekonometrik model orqali tahlil qilingan. Inflyatsiya, real yalpi ichki mahsulot,
qayta moliyalash stavkasi, tashqi savdo balansi va oltin-valyuta zaxiralarining dinamikasi asosida valyuta kursining prognoz
ko‘rsatkichlari ishlab chiqilgan. Tadqiqot natijalari valyuta kursini barqarorlashtirishda Markaziy bankning moslashuvchan
pul-kredit siyosati, iqtisodiy o‘sishni rag‘batlantirish va dollarlashuv darajasini kamaytirish muhim ahamiyat kasb etishini
ko‘rsatdi. Model asosida 2025–2030-yillarga mo‘ljallangan prognozlar keltirilib, ularning iqtisodiy siyosatga ta’siri tahlil
qilindi.
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